Chinese officials show a subtle preference for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in the future of U.S.-China relations, but challenges loom regardless of the election outcome.
At a Glance
- Chinese officials slightly favor Harris over Trump for more predictable U.S.-China relations
- Both candidates expected to maintain a stringent approach toward China
- Harris likely to continue Biden’s policies, seen as “Trumpist without the Trump”
- Trump viewed as unpredictable, potentially causing significant issues in bilateral relations
- Bipartisan consensus in the U.S. on a hawkish stance towards China expected to continue
Chinese Perspective on U.S. Presidential Candidates
As the U.S. presidential race heats up, Chinese officials are closely analyzing the potential impacts of a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump presidency on U.S.-China relations. While Beijing maintains its stance of non-interference in U.S. internal affairs, there is a growing consensus among Chinese analysts that Harris might be the marginally preferred candidate for maintaining stability in the complex bilateral relationship.
The preference for Harris stems largely from the expectation that she would continue the policies established under the Biden administration. These policies, while still stringent towards China, are viewed as more predictable and manageable by Chinese officials. Wang Yiwei, a professor of international studies at Renmin University in Beijing, succinctly captures this sentiment:
Concerns Over Trump’s Unpredictability
The prospect of a second Trump presidency raises concerns in Beijing due to his reputation for unpredictability and emotional decision-making. Jia Qingguo, a prominent Chinese academic, highlights these worries:
“We already had four years of experience with Donald Trump, and Donald Trump is a very unique character. He’s not a normal politician. He’s not even a normal businessman.” Jia further elaborates on the potential risks associated with Trump’s leadership style: “He’s highly unpredictable, and he can be very emotional. He may take measures that would create huge problems between China and the U.S.”
Bipartisan Consensus on China Policy
Despite the perceived differences between Harris and Trump, Chinese strategists recognize that the overall trajectory of U.S.-China relations is unlikely to change significantly regardless of the election outcome. There is a bipartisan consensus in Washington on maintaining a tough stance towards China, as noted by Wang Jisi, Hu Ran, and Zhao Jianwei: “Chinese strategists hold few illusions that US policy toward China might change course over the next decade … they assume that whoever is elected in November 2024 will continue to prioritize strategic competition and even containment in Washington’s approach to Beijing.”
Key Issues in U.S.-China Relations
Several critical issues continue to shape U.S.-China relations, regardless of who occupies the White House. These include trade disputes, technology competition, and geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning Taiwan and the South China Sea. Harris’s approach is expected to emphasize a balance between engagement and competition, while Trump’s potential return could lead to more aggressive tactics and economic friction.
China Prefers Kamala Harris Over Donald Trump For US President: Top Chinese Official | NDTV Profit
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The Taiwan issue remains a particularly sensitive point in bilateral relations. Some Chinese officials believe that Trump’s business-oriented approach might lead to less support for Taiwan’s sovereignty. However, the Taiwan Relations Act ensures a degree of U.S. commitment regardless of the administration in power.
Climate policy cooperation is another area of uncertainty, with China potentially focusing more on subnational cooperation due to concerns about national-level diplomacy under a potential Trump presidency.
Preparing for Future Scenarios
As the U.S. election approaches, China is likely to prepare for various scenarios. Associate Professor Jinghao Zhou suggests that under a Harris presidency, China may need to reassess its strategies:
“China will need to reassess its strategies, engaging in more strategic negotiations while balancing its assertive nationalism with economic resilience due to her anticipated shift in approach” – Associate Professor Jinghao Zhou
In conclusion, while Chinese officials may slightly prefer Harris for her perceived predictability, they are preparing for continued challenges in U.S.-China relations regardless of the election outcome. The bipartisan consensus on a tough China policy in Washington suggests that major shifts in the bilateral relationship are unlikely, even as both nations navigate the complex landscape of global politics and economics.
Sources:
Taiwan and trade: how China sees its future with the US after the election
Zhou Explores How China Might React to U.S. Foreign Policy in the Post-Election Years
Who does China’s president want to win the U.S. election?
