Nuclear Treaty DEAD—Arms Race Returns After Decades

A green road sign displaying the words The End against a cloudy sky

The last remaining nuclear arms treaty between the United States and Russia expired on February 5, 2026, leaving both superpowers without verification or limits on their strategic arsenals for the first time since the Reagan era—a development President Trump dismissed while pursuing an elusive “better deal” that includes China.

Story Snapshot

New START treaty expired February 5, 2026, ending nuclear warhead limits and verification inspections between U.S. and Russia after nearly 40 years of continuous arms control
Trump rejected Russia’s September 2025 extension proposal, insisting on a new agreement that includes China despite Beijing’s refusal to participate
Russia suspended treaty inspections in 2023 over U.S. support for Ukraine, eliminating verification mechanisms years before formal expiration
Experts warn the lapse creates conditions for a dangerous arms race and undermines U.S. deterrence credibility with allies considering independent nuclear programs

Trump Administration Lets Treaty Lapse Without Replacement

President Trump allowed New START to expire without extension or replacement, stating in January 2026, “If it expires, it expires. We’ll just do a better agreement.” The treaty, signed in 2010 and extended once, capped deployed strategic nuclear warheads at 1,550 for each nation, delivery vehicles at 700, and launchers at 800. Trump’s position reflects his long-standing criticism that the agreement failed to include China, whose nuclear arsenal is expanding rapidly. The White House and Pentagon deferred detailed questions about future arms control paths, indicating Trump would clarify his approach on his own timeline.

Russia Suspended Verification Three Years Before Expiration

Moscow halted New START inspections in 2023, citing U.S. military support for Ukraine as justification for suspending verification mechanisms. This move effectively gutted the treaty’s enforcement provisions years before its formal expiration date. Russia proposed a one-year extension in September 2025, expressing regret over the treaty’s lapse and openness to “comprehensive stabilization” talks. However, Trump did not formally respond to Moscow’s proposal. Eleventh-hour discussions reportedly occurred in early February 2026 according to unnamed sources cited by Axios, but no details emerged and no informal truce or alternative arrangement was confirmed by credible sources.

First Nuclear Arms Control Gap Since Cold War

New START’s expiration marks the first time since 1991 that the United States and Russia operate without bilateral nuclear weapons limits. The treaty succeeded START I signed under President Reagan, which established decades of continuous arms control frameworks. Previous treaties like the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty collapsed when the U.S. withdrew in 2019, signaling an erosion of the post-Cold War arms control architecture. Without New START’s data exchanges and inspection provisions, both nations lose transparency into each other’s strategic forces. This verification vacuum heightens mistrust and removes early warning systems that helped prevent miscalculation during previous periods of geopolitical tension.

China Rejects Participation in Trilateral Framework

Trump’s insistence on including China in any future nuclear agreement faces a fundamental obstacle: Beijing refuses to participate. China’s Foreign Ministry has repeatedly rejected joining trilateral talks, arguing its arsenal remains significantly smaller than U.S. and Russian stockpiles. The Trump administration’s position abandons concrete limits on Russian capabilities in pursuit of a theoretical framework that China shows no willingness to accept. Former Pentagon official Kingston Reif questioned why the administration would jettison existing Russian constraints for a China-inclusive agreement that New START was never designed to achieve and that remains diplomatically unattainable in the near term.

Arms Race Risks and Allied Proliferation Concerns

UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that nuclear risks have reached their highest levels in decades as New START expired. Without treaty constraints, defense spending on nuclear modernization will likely accelerate in both nations. Representative John Garamendi warned that the lapse creates a “terrifying world without limits” on the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals. Beyond U.S.-Russia dynamics, the treaty’s collapse accelerates proliferation debates among American allies. Japan, Poland, South Korea, and Turkey face growing pressure to develop independent nuclear capabilities as confidence in U.S. extended deterrence erodes, a shift that would fundamentally undermine American strategic influence while creating new proliferation risks.

Council on Foreign Relations experts Rebecca Lissner and Erin D. Dumbacher note that tolerating allied proliferation would shift defense burdens away from the United States but simultaneously weaken American deterrence credibility and create new security risks. The expiration represents a critical juncture: Trump’s pursuit of a comprehensive agreement including China may eventually yield strategic benefits if successful, but the immediate consequence is the first unconstrained period in U.S.-Russia nuclear competition since the Cold War ended. For Americans who value peace through strength and clear-eyed diplomacy over empty multilateral gestures, the path forward requires verifiable agreements that actually constrain adversaries rather than wishful frameworks that leave our nation exposed while negotiations drag on indefinitely.