Thanksgiving TURKEY CRISIS — Prices Skyrocket 75%

A beautifully roasted turkey on a festive table surrounded by side dishes and decorations

Thanksgiving’s most iconic tradition faces an unprecedented blow this year as turkey prices soar by up to 75%, forcing many American families to rethink their holiday table.

Story Highlights

Wholesale turkey prices have surged 70-75% compared to last year, marking the sharpest increase in decades.
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreaks have decimated flocks, reducing supply and pushing prices skyward.
Production costs and supply chain pressures compound the price shock, with many retailers unable to offer deep discounts.
Low- and middle-income households are most affected, threatening family traditions and straining holiday budgets.

Historic Price Spike Threatens Thanksgiving Traditions

In 2025, Americans are confronting the highest turkey prices ever recorded at Thanksgiving. Wholesale prices have reached $1.68–$1.71 per pound, a staggering 70-75% jump from last year’s rates. This dramatic surge stands out even as overall food inflation moderates, with turkey singled out by economists and industry experts as the most affected staple. Families planning traditional gatherings now face tough choices, as the cost of the centerpiece bird strains budgets and puts cherished customs at risk.

HPAI outbreaks—first surfacing in 2022 and intensifying through 2025—have devastated turkey flocks across the nation. Unlike previous short-lived incidents, this wave of avian flu has proven persistent, hitting producers with repeated losses and halting the usual recovery cycles. Turkey production is down more than 8% year-over-year, leaving the U.S. turkey population at its lowest in four decades. Experts from Purdue University and Texas A&M highlight that turkeys, requiring longer maturation, are uniquely vulnerable, extending the supply crisis into the holiday season.

Compounding Costs and Supply Chain Pressures

Beyond disease, rising input costs—feed, labor, and energy—have squeezed producers further, driving up prices for retailers and, ultimately, consumers. The USDA confirms that this year only about 195 million turkeys were raised, compared to 200 million the previous year. Retailers like Walmart and Kroger, traditionally offering turkeys as loss leaders to attract holiday shoppers, struggle to maintain their promotional strategies. While some chains aggressively discount turkeys to offset sticker shock, the limited supply means deep deals are rare, and regional price differences are sharp.

Small turkey farmers, especially, feel the pain, facing existential threats from disease and market volatility. Unlike large agribusinesses, independent producers lack the leverage to absorb repeated losses or negotiate favorable terms with suppliers. This shift may accelerate industry consolidation and prompt investments in biosecurity, but in the short term, it means fewer options and higher costs for American households. The ramifications stretch beyond Thanksgiving, with experts warning that persistent HPAI could reshape poultry markets for years to come.

Impact on American Families and Holiday Traditions

With retail prices forecast to average $2.05 per pound and some estimates showing increases as high as 75% since October 2024, low- and middle-income families are disproportionately affected. Many households must scale back gatherings, substitute alternative proteins, or seek out meal bundles to manage expenses. Retailers promote limited-time deals, but sticker shock remains widespread, and some families may abandon turkey altogether. Analysts note that other Thanksgiving staples like eggs and potatoes have seen mixed price trends, with some even cheaper than last year, but the turkey’s spike overshadows these modest reliefs.

Economists stress that the crisis is not merely about food costs—it’s about the erosion of tradition and the impact of government and industry failures to control disease and stabilize supply. The persistent HPAI threat, coupled with rising production costs, highlights vulnerabilities in America’s food system. Policymakers face mounting pressure to address food security and invest in disease prevention infrastructure. The poultry sector, meanwhile, must adapt to ongoing challenges, while consumers confront the reality that Thanksgiving’s centerpiece may never be as affordable—or as accessible—as it once was.