(PatriotSpotlight.org) – Predictions in American political life often rely on far more than mere polling data. Historian Allan Lichtman, who has previously accurately predicted the victors of nine out of the last ten presidential elections, is one such influential opinion beyond the raw data.
Speaking to a journalist last week, American University historian and steeple chasing champion Lichtman claimed that while polls offered useful snapshots of what voters were thinking at certain times, his unique model looks deeper into election dynamics. Lichtman’s method, dubbed the “Lichtman Keys,” includes 13 statements. If eight or above of these conditions favor the White House’s incumbent party, they are predicted to win; while under the opposition scenario, their challenger is predicted victory. He first fully explained the concept in his 1988 book “The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency,” subtitled “Prediction Without Polls”.
The interview centered on the keys’ relevance to contemporary speculations about this November’s Presidential election. While many recent polls show Donald Trump as the favorite to win in multiple crucial swing states, Lichtman’s analysis posits that Joe Biden is the likeliest to achieve reelection. Key factors in Lichtman’s predictions include incumbency, foreign/military failures, economic stability and whether or not there have been major political scandals.
Lichtman’s model is set apart from others due to its grounding in historic trends and its interdisciplinary lens. The model’s unique genesis came with the assistance of an earthquake specialist, drawing parallels between political stability and seismic movement.
The 77-year-old’s track record includes a failed prediction ahead of 2000’s contentious Presidential election in which Texas’ Republican Governor George W. Bush narrowly defeated Al Gore in the first such vote since 1888 in which the winner lost the popular vote. Overall Lichtman’s analysis is helpful in that it works beyond fast-moving polling data, offering a fleshed-out understanding of electoral probabilities. Obviously, no electoral predictions can be totally infallible, but the so-called “Lichtman’s Keys“ 90 percent success rate thus far indicates its importance in the landscape of electoral tools.
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